Decline of Bulgarian exports - the reasons are high prices and military conflicts

Bulgarian exports have decreased for the second consecutive year, according to statistics. Among the reasons are military conflicts and rising prices.

For the past year, Bulgarian producers report significantly lower revenues from food, machinery, and vegetable oils exports.

In 2024, the value of exports dropped by 3.3%, following an even more significant decline of 6.5% in 2023.

The value of goods exported from Bulgaria last year exceeded 84 billion BGN, which is nearly 3 billion BGN less compared to the previous year, according to statistical data.

The main market for Bulgarian goods is the European Union. Therefore, the stagnation of leading European economies has significantly affected the export of our producers, who are part of the supply chains for Western companies.

Exports to EU countries decreased by 2.2% last year compared to 2023. The decline in exports to third countries is even sharper—over 5%. The reduced sales abroad are also linked to ongoing military conflicts near our borders.

"Disrupted logistics links, which continue to remain uncertain. Even if conflicts are resolved, delivery routes will need to be rearranged, and there will again be competition among firms that are rivals. There are also domestic reasons for the decrease in exports. This includes uncertainty regarding electricity prices, the way compensations were determined per unit, budget uncertainties, and whether taxes will increase. We are also significantly lagging behind in using European funds," said Tsvetan Simeonov, chairman of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The most significant decline is seen in the export of food, machinery, wheat, and grain crops, electrical devices and components, and vegetable oils.

The drop in exports of unrefined sunflower oil and sunflower meal is especially drastic— by over 70% in the past year.

"The main reason is the low sunflower yields. The high prices at which sunflowers are offered, the reduced imports due to the licensing regime introduced in Ukraine, and the lost markets have resulted in factory closures. This happened in two years after unreasonable measures were taken against the free market," added Yani Yanev, head of the Sunflower Processors Association.

"The decrease in the import of machinery, equipment, and installations is concerning, as it suggests no new initiatives for new productions are being undertaken. This is a factor that acts in the opposite direction to increasing exports," said Tsvetan Simeonov.

However, there are some groups of goods, albeit few, whose exports have increased in recent years. Among them are various metals, particularly copper.

In recent years, Bulgaria’s largest trading partners have been Germany, Romania, Italy, Turkey, and Greece.