"Gallup" Polls: GERB Remains Leading Political Force, "MRF– New Beginning" Rises to Second Place

A consolidation of the governing majority and stabilisation of the leading parties, along with dynamic shifts in the field of radical and anti-system players – these are the key findings of a nationally representative survey conducted by Gallup International Balkan in late May and early June 2025.

Graphic: Gallup International Balkan

The data confirms the continued dominance of the GERB-UDF party. With support at 24.5%, the formation maintains a clear lead over other political forces. This indicates that opposition efforts to erode confidence in the ruling coalition—particularly around issues like the introduction of the euro—have so far failed to yield significant political results. On the contrary, such rhetoric appears to be having a consolidating effect on the governing parties led by GERB-UDF, according to the pollsters.

In second place is MRF – New Beginning, with 15.7% support. This comes amid internal restructuring and personnel shifts that are broadening the party’s reach—including the inclusion of key local party structures and mayors, as well as the resolution of a legal dispute over the party’s name, which has had a legitimising effect.

"We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) currently enjoys 14.2% electoral support. A major limitation for the coalition remains its lack of political cohesion and inconsistent messaging. A case in point is the handling of a potential vote of no confidence in the government: while WCC has signaled readiness for such a move following the European institutions’ decisions on the euro, DB appears to distance itself from that initiative.

'Vazrazhdane' shows signs of recovery following a previous decline, now reaching 13.4% support. A key mobilising factor appears to be its active campaign against the euro adoption planned for 2026.

The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is in a phase of relative stabilisation with 7% support. Its current role in governance appears to have halted the erosion of voter support seen in recent years.

'There Is Such a People' (TISP) remains steady at 5.1%. The MECH (Morality, Unity, Honour) party registers 5.5%, while 'Alliance for Rights and Freedoms' has dropped to 3.9%, lmost likely due to the loss in the competition with MRF – New Beginning and its inconsistent behaviour, such as its brief involvement in the governing majority. 'Velichie' reports 3.7% support—its main challenge appears to be a lack of substantive messages for voters.

Photos by BTA Archive

Methodology
The face-to-face survey was conducted using tablet-based data collection among 1,204 adult Bulgarian citizens between May 28 and June 4, 2025. The maximum margin of error is ±3.4% at a 95% confidence interval for a 50% share of the main sample. The survey is part of Gallup International Balkan’s independent research programme and was funded by its own resources.