Expansion of conflicts in the Middle East do not impact migration pressure on Bulgaria, says Head of SANS

The expansion of conflicts in the Middle East has not impacted migration pressure on Bulgaria or the profile of illegal migrants, according to Plamen Tonchev, Chairman of the State Agency for National Security (SANS), during his hearing in Parliament on January 9.

Tonchev presented information alongside other intelligence officials on the government's measures regarding potential future refugee waves from Syria, Gaza, Afghanistan, and other centres of instability.

According to SANS' analysis, the removal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would not resolve the country's underlying issues due to the many ethnic and religious groups with different interests.

He noted that there are conditions that could lead to the return of Syrian refugees or the generation of new migration waves.

In his words, the profile of detained migrants in Bulgaria remains unchanged: they are predominantly Sunni Muslims, young, unmarried, and with low levels of education or literacy. Most cite economic and social reasons for migration.

Tonchev pointed out that an organisation has been set up in SANS to monitor the processes in Syria, track migration routes, and assess potential impacts on Bulgaria, including the behavior of residents from high-risk countries currently living in Bulgaria.

One possible source of tension, according to Tonchev, is a potential military operation by the new Syrian authorities, backed by Ankara, against Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria.

There have also been reports of rising tensions in Bulgaria's refugee reception centers, particularly in Harmanli, where confrontations between Syrian refugees of Arab and Kurdish descent have intensified, with threats of violence.

SANS also highlighted a change in the international terrorism situation related to the possibility of groups taking advantage of the power vacuum in Syria.

Migration interest toward Europe, including Bulgaria, is expected to persist, driven by multi-faceted destabilization in regions like the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and Africa, along with enduring socio-economic issues.