A mutated strain of influenza is gaining momentum in the United Kingdom and is unlikely to spare Bulgaria. The warning came from Professor Iva Hristova, Director of the National Centre for Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, speaking on 'The Day Begins' programme on December 11.
“Respiratory viruses are circulating in the air, which is entirely expected for the season. The encouraging news is that the rise in cases remains relatively slow. At present, the number of people with flu and acute respiratory infections is actually slightly lower than during the same week last year. I expect this to change. Bulgaria cannot remain isolated from what we are seeing in the UK, particularly during the holiday period, when travel intensifies. It is inevitable that the altered AH3N2 influenza virus will be brought into the country. In Britain, a mutated H3N2 strain is spreading rapidly. This strain is also dominant here, but has not yet undergone such mutations. The mutations are significant, and they leave our immune system relatively unprotected — despite immunity built up from previous illness or vaccination. The UK is seeing a sharp surge in cases, which is putting pressure on the health system,” Professor Hristova said.
She noted that the mutations reduce the effectiveness of current vaccines.
“These mutations mean the virus is changing, and the immunity generated by vaccination does not provide full protection. It protects us — but not completely. Vaccines are based on strains that caused the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere. However, these mutations appeared at the very end of their season, leaving no time for adjustment. Mutations arise spontaneously under immune pressure as the virus attempts to survive. There is no evidence that the illness is more severe, but the number of infections in the UK is considerably higher. Their epidemic peak is expected later, and to some extent this will affect us as well — though likely not to the same degree.”
The peak of flu and other viral infections is expected in January.
“During the Christmas and New Year holidays, there is a lot of movement. The first week after New Year usually shows low incidence, and then the numbers rise sharply — typically until the end of January. We may see more cases this year, and the peak could even shift into February. At the moment, the increase is very gradual: around 3,100 to 3,300 cases per week over the past three weeks, which corresponds to 92 per 10,000 people. Some regions, however, are already seeing higher rates — Pernik, Sofia District, and Varna. Incidence is especially high among children aged 9–14 (270 per 10,000) and children under 4 (360 per 10,000). Most hospitalisations, however, involve patients aged 65 and over. This is why it is vital to ensure a larger supply of vaccines next year. Demand was clearly higher this season, and availability insufficient.”
Professor Hristova acknowledged that nasal spray vaccines once again fell short of demand among parents wishing to immunise their children.
“Adult injectable vaccines can also be used for children — they are approved for ages six months and up — while the nasal vaccines are suitable for children over two. It is very important, because children are both a high-risk group and are encountering many viruses for the first time. Illness often progresses more severely in them. Starting nursery or kindergarten exposes them to a wide range of pathogens, and each viral illness weakens the immune system, making them more susceptible to the next infection. Influenza is not harmless; it can cause complications, and it is crucial to protect our youngest and most vulnerable.”
On prevention, the head of the National Centre offered several recommendations.
“Masks remain one of our strongest defences. They were mandatory during the Covid period for a reason, and they are strongly recommended — especially on public transport and at gatherings. Most importantly, those who have symptoms should wear a mask, but even if others do not, we can protect ourselves by wearing one. It is neither unattractive nor inappropriate — it is essential. Masks protect not only against flu, but also against the wider group of respiratory viruses currently circulating: coronavirus, rhino- and bocaviruses. Flu is dominant, but these other viruses are also widespread. It is strongly advisable to avoid falling ill now, as that will make us more vulnerable later. Masks are one measure; another is supporting the immune system. Certain micronutrients — zinc, selenium, vitamin D, vitamin C — are important. Vitamin D, in particular, is low in most people during winter due to reduced sunlight, and this increases susceptibility to infection.”
Addressing those who continue to suffer from prolonged runny nose, cough or fatigue after infection, Professor Hristova added:
“This happens because people fail to rest properly. They need to stay home and recover fully — not return to work after a day or two. We have a responsibility to our own bodies and to others not to infect them. Even at home, we should isolate ourselves to prevent transmission. Work-related stress often prevents us from noticing how unwell we are, but proper rest is critical for full recovery.”
She concluded by urging people not to self-medicate, but to consult a doctor so that appropriate treatment can be prescribed.
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