National task force predicts possible serious increase in Covid-19 cases in Bulgaria within three weeks

The national task force against coronavirus predicts possible serious increase in the Covid-19 cases in the country within three weeks. The anti-epidemic measures will not be further relaxed despite the observed increase in average morbidity.

Currently, 10 people are infecting 12, instead of five, as was the case a little over a week ago.

There will be no loosening of measures, but there will be no tightening, although according to the assessment of the task force, we are almost on the threshold of the third wave, which we are already seeing in Europe.

The Minister of Health has repeatedly said that there will be stricter measures when the incidence reaches 200 infected per 100,000 people, and at the moment it is 113 per 100,000. For less than a week the incidence has risen by 28.

According to the Centre for Infectious Diseases, the UK variant of the virus has been detected in the following districts: Sofia city, Sofia district, Plovdiv, Pazardzhik, Montana, Haskovo and Blagoevgrad. However, we still cannot say how widely spread it is, because not enough samples have been tested.

The trend has reversed. We are no longer seeing a gradual decline in the spread of the infection, but we are seeing signs of an intensification of the epidemic.

As of January 25, the number of people in need of hospital treatment is growing. It is no longer 85, but it is 113 infected per 100,000. And this is bad news, because we are heading towards the third wave with much more unfavourable indicators compared to the crisis in the autumn.

"The levels we start from are much higher, so we hardly have 7 weeks. We don't have 7 weeks. We probably have 3 weeks. As unpleasant as it is for me to be a bad messenger, I cannot withhold the facts," the head of the national task force, Major General, Prof. Dr. Ventsislav Mutafchyiski said on February 4.

“In February, the numbers will rise. The worst case scenario would be significant exponential growth in cases, filling the hospitals and experiencing again the crisis, which we went through at the end of November," Chief State Health Inspector, Assoc. Prof. Angel Kunchev, said.

However, the measures will not be changed for the time being.

The analysis now shows aggravation of the situation in the capital. The new cases jumped again above 200, a number we have not seen since January 7. Over a period of just one day, 13 people with Covid-19 were admitted to the Military Medical Academy - as many as for the entire previous week.

"That is why every 12 hours we monitor all the numbers, we analyse each trend and at any time we are ready to take action if necessary," said Health Minister, Prof. Kostadin Angelov.

With regard to vaccination - negotiations are underway for additional supplies of RNA vaccines - this is the technology used by Pfizer and Moderna.

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