Trend Poll: No clear front runner, contested third place in Bulgaria’s April 2 snap elections

The results of a survey by “Trend” polling agency released on March 31 show no clear front runner and contested third place in Bulgaria’s April 2 early parliamentary elections.

Five parties are sure to enter the next Parliament and two remain close to the 4% electoral threshold to secure representation in Parliament.

Three main questions remain that cannot find a definite answer – who will be the winner of the elections, which party will take the third place, and the number of formations that will get parliamentary representation.

The parity between the coalitions GERB-CDS (26.4% of voters) and "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (26.1% of voters) is maintained. We register a stronger mobilisation of GERB-UDF in the course of the campaign, the analysts say.

The difference in support between MRF (13.7%) and Vazrazhdane (13.3%) is half a percentage point.

“Trend” reminds that the polls it conducts are carried out only on the territory of Bulgaria and the expected larger margin of formations such as WCC-DB and MRF, among voters abroad, could tip the scales in their favour.

BSP for Bulgaria is in a secure fifth position, with 7.3% of the vote.

Among the smaller formations, the coalition “The Left” has the best chance of representation in the 49th National Assembly (3.6% of voters), followed by Bulgaria Ascending (3.5% of voters). “There is Such a People” gathers about 3% of the voter’s support.

5.2% of the respondents in the survey say they would choose the option "I do not support anyone" on the ballot paper.

Its result is redistributed among all formations, as it does not participate in the final election result in parliamentary elections.

48% of all polled declared that they would exercise their right to vote, which is equivalent to just over 2.6 million voters.

The “Trend” survey was commissioned by NOVA Broadcasting Group in relation to the electoral attitudes of the Bulgarians. The research was conducted between 22 and 29 March 2023 through a direct semi-standardised face-to-face tablet interview among 1,004 people aged 18 and over.