“Trend” poll: Six parties sure to enter Bulgaria’s next Parliament

Six political parties will certainly enter the next Parliament, according to the results of a survey commissioned by the 24 Chasa (24 hours) daily newspaper and conducted by “Trend” polling agency .

The poll suggests a tight race for second place between the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the “We Continue the Change” (WCC) party, founded by Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev who were ministers in the first caretaker government this year.

The favourite for the first round of the presidential elections is the Radev – Yotova team, and their sure opponent in a possible second round of presidential elections is Gerdzhikov – Miteva team.

Bulgaria will be going to the polls on November 14 after the biggest political powers elected in the April 4 regular parliamentary elections and the ones elected in July 11 early parliamentary elections failed to form a government. The November 14 early parliamentary elections will be held on the same day as the regular presidential elections.

According to the poll, Boyko Borissov’s GERB retains its leading position with 22.9% support among those who intend to vote in the early parliamentary election and continues to be at a stable distance of 8% from the the ones in second place.

The poll predicts a contested battle for second place between the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) (15.1%) and the “We Continue the Change” (WCC) party(14,8%).

The formation around Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev has a larger periphery than the Socialist Party and if there is a high turnout, it may be in second place. The hard and mobilized BSP electorate would have a more serious relative weight in the event of lower turnout.

"There is Such a People" is in the fourth place with 12.8% of the votes, followed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms ( MRF) with 10.3%. Democratic Bulgaria is predicted to gain the support of 9.1%.

The parties below the 4% electoral threshold, but with a chance to overcome it and win seats in Parliament are “Vazrazhdane” (3,6%) and “Rise Up BG! We are Coming” (3,3%). VMRO remain with 2,2% of the voters’ support.

Declared turnout for the upcoming early parliamentary elections is 55%. Given that 1% of the sample in the survey corresponds to 55,000 people, it can be expected that a little over 3 million Bulgarians will vote. From the voter lists, this would be a turnout of about 45%.

The structure of the order of the presidential elections seems much clearer than that of the parliamentary elections and it is difficult to expect a shift in it.

Rumen Radev - Iliana Yotova team is in the leading position with 46.8%, followed by Anastas Gerdzhikov - Nevyana Miteva with 24.4% of the voters. Mustafa Karadayi - Iskra Mihailova (9.9%), who managed to mobilize the entire MRF electorate, are in third place.

According to the survey results, the fourth place will be occupied by the team of Lozan Panov and Maria Kasimova-Moase with 6.4% of the votes, followed by Kostadin Kostadinov and Elena Guncheva with 3.1%, Milen Mihov - Maria Tsvetkova with 1.6% and Luna Yordanova - Iglena Ilieva with 1%.

The declared turnout in the presidential election is slightly lower than in the parliamentary elections - 53%, which would mean just under 3 million Bulgarian citizens exercising their right to vote in the vote for head of state. From the voter lists, this would be a turnout of about 43%.

The second round of the presidential election seems almost certain. Only surprisingly high voter turnout could possibly increase the likelihood of a single-round election.

The data were obtained from a survey held a week before the elections for National Assembly and the head of state. They cannot be taken as a forecast for the election result, but as a snapshot to the period of the survey. It was conducted only on the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria and does not take into account the votes of Bulgarian citizens who will vote abroad.