Bulgaria's population is shrinking: In 20 years it is predicted to decrease by 1/4

Bulgaria's population continues to decline. Over the next 20 years, it will have shrunk by about a quarter. This is the forecast from the study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Bulgaria.

Vidin, Montana, Kyustendil, Pernik and Lovech are the most rapidly depopulated districts.

It is expected that by 2040 some settlements will be completely depopulated and the population will be concentrated mainly in the cities of Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Bourgas, Rousse and Stara Zagora.

Because of these predictions, researchers say that in the coming years, the race of countries will not be for more wealth, but for more population.

A camera in Vidin (Northern Bulgaria) placed in the centre of the city and the camera in Sofia at the same time suggest what the study predicts.

density of the polulation

"25% of the settlements will be depopulated," said Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nadezhda Ilieva, head of the Economic and Social Geography Section.

And the map shows how this will happen: The more the yellow colour increases, the lower the population density. By 2040, the map will be mostly yellow.

"Every city will fight for population," added Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nadezhda Ilieva, head of the Economic and Social Geography Section.

Where the population is declining the fastest, people notice it because their neighbours are disappearing. And because they themselves are looking for realization in other cities.

The death rate in the country’s Northwest region is the same as the death rate during wars in Africa and Asia. And the birth rate remains low throughout the country. Thus, mathematics shows that in 20 years Bulgaria’s population will have shrunk to just over 5 million.

2021: 6,951,482 people

2040: 5,100,000 people

"If nothing changes in the right direction, this forecast will happen. And it is not so important what the absolute population will be, but what the structures will be," said Assoc. Prof. Georgi Bardarov, PhD in geography of population and settlements.

More aging population and less young educated people.

"For there to be a change, there must be an adequate regional policy. In places where the local government does its work, things really happen. We should not wait only for the state government. The local government has its resources," added Assoc. Prof. Georgi Bardarov.

Northwestern Bulgaria has always been cited as the worst example of a demographic situation. However, other areas of our country are joining the unpleasant trends.

There are several cities with low birth rates and high mortality. Indicators that are the cause of the minus before the numbers or in other words the natural decrease.

In these cities the population is going in a downward trend:

Vidin: -16.4 ‰

Montana -14.5 ‰

Kyustendil -13.2 ‰

Lovech -13.1 ‰

Pernik -13.1 ‰

Gabrovo -12.7 ‰

Vratsa -11.4 ‰

Pleven -11 ‰

Veliko Turnovo -10.1 ‰

Municipalities like Elin Pelin, which for several years have been encouraging parents with higher education - with four-figure sums. And they are already seeing results. In the cities cited as the worst examples, people know what would keep them in the city.

Researchers warn: There will be demographic deserts in Bulgaria, in which there will be no more than 10 people per square kilometre.

And the unpleasant forecasts have a light in the tunnel.

If we look for a place as an example for hope, it is Ireland - the country that less than 100 years ago had the worst indicators - demographically, economically and socially.

Today it is the country with some of the best demographic indicators. Everything is a matter of politics - not only of the state, but of the local government, Assoc. Prof. Georgi Bardarov reminded.

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