Bulgarian mathematicians present predictive scenarios on the course of Covid-19 pandemic in the country

Scientists have presented several possible scenarios for the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to their forecasts, the epidemic in Bulgaria will end by the end of this year, if enough people are vaccinated. However, if their numbers are not very large, the epidemic will continue until the middle of next year.

If 100,000 people are vaccinated per month, the epidemic will last until September or, in the worst case, until the end of this year, scientists say. However, the prognosis of the mathematicians for the sad statistics in the country is worrisome.

We have about 1 million people who have encountered the virus so far, and of that one million, about 10,500 died, so by the end of the pandemic, we have to reach 5 million who encouter the virus, because 5 million is 70% of the population, so "If so far we have 10,500 people who died, you have to multiply by 5 and you get about 50,000 who may die by the end of the pandemic, because so far about 10,000 have died, this means that about 40,000 more is possible to die,". Prof. Ognyan Kunchev from the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences said on March 9.

To avoid such outcome, scientists advise to focus on vaccinating people from vulnerable groups and those with comorbidities. For Easter, which falls in early May, they predict three possible scenarios for the course of the epidemic in the country.

"There will be a surge in cases if the anti-epidemic measures are relaxed. If the measures are as they are now, then we can expect new cases of about 2000 a day. They can reach the level of a little over 3000 a day. And if the measures are tightened or it can also to be interpreted as a result of the vaccinations - the ones that are being done now and the ones that have already been done, so we expect attenuation, but not elimination," said Prof. Marusia Bozhkova from the faculty of mathematics and informatics at Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski".

Scientists have also created a model that predicts the number of infected people who are not included in the statistics, which does not allow them to be monitored by health authorities. Unfortunately, however, this model cannot predict when the pandemic in Bulgaria will subside.

Чуйте последните новини, където и да сте!
Последвайте ни във Facebook и Instagram
Следете и канала на БНТ в YouTube
Вече може да ни гледате и в TikTok
Намерете ни в Google News