EC: Bulgaria at Risk of Breaching EU Fiscal Rules in 2026

Bulgaria, Hungary and Spain are the three EU member states flagged at risk of failing to comply with the Union’s fiscal framework in 2026, according to the European Commission’s Autumn Package under the European Semester. The package sets out the EU’s economic and employment policy priorities aimed at boosting competitiveness across the bloc.

As part of the Semester process, the Commission adopted opinions on the 2026 draft budgetary plans of 17 eurozone countries.

Twelve countries — Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Portugal and Slovakia — were assessed as compliant with EU fiscal rules and invited to continue implementing their fiscal policies as planned.

Three countries - Croatia, Lithuania and Slovenia - are assessed as being at risk of non-compliance and are invited to take measures to bring their fiscal policies in line with the recommendations. Malta and the Netherlands are assessed as being at risk of material non-compliance.

For the remaining EU countries, seven are assessed as compliant - Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Sweden, Poland and Romania - and three countries - Bulgaria, Hungary and Spain - are at risk of non-compliance.

The analysis identifies risks to upward social convergence in nine Member States that are identified for a deeper analysis in spring 2026: Bulgaria, Greece, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, Lativa, Luxembourg, Romania, and Finland.

These include challenges such as low productivity, labour and skills shortages, and higher levels of poverty or other social vulnerabilities.