IMF’s Autumn Forecast: Higher Inflation and Slower Growth in Bulgaria

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply raised its forecast for Bulgaria’s average annual inflation from 3.8% to 4.9%, compared with its spring estimate.

In the October edition of its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF also lowered its forecast for Bulgarian economic growth in 2026 from 2.8% to 2.6%. The Fund expects the current account deficit to reach 8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, double the 4% projected in April.

The IMF forecasts that economic growth in the euro area will slow to 1.1% this year, due to high energy costs and weak consumer confidence. Its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 has been raised to 3.1%.

However, high fuel prices pose a significant risk, particularly for lower-income countries that are being left out of the boom in artificial intelligence investment, the Fund added.