Alpha Research poll: 6 parties will enter next Parliament; formally ruling GERB would be in first place; BSP and WCC in battle for second place

According to the results of a poll by Alpha Research released three days before the start of the campaign period for Bulgaria’s November 2021 early parliamentary elections, the most likely scenario is a Parliament with six parties, in which a majority will not be achieved without the votes of three or four parties.

Bulgaria will be going to the polls on November 14 after the biggest political powers elected in the April 4 regular parliamentary elections and the ones elected in July 11 early parleimentary elections failed to form a government. The November 14 early parliamentary elections will be held on the same day as the regular presidential elections.

According to the poll, Boyiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition has 23.1% support among those who firmly intend to vote in the early parliamentary election and continues to be at a stable distance from the others.

The poll predicts a contested battle for second place between the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) (16.8%) and the “We Continue the Change” (WCC) party(15,9%), founded by Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev who were ministers in the first caretaker government this year.

WCC had begun with a flying start, but at the moment showed a “high plateau” rather than exponential growth.

The BSP had in its favour the high level of motivation of its voters, but the Covid-19 crisis and machine voting could reduce this result.

This was a reference to BSP voters being discouraged to vote in April because of the Covid-19 crisis, while numerous supporters of the party were reluctant to vote in July after electoral law was changed so that voting was done only using a machine.

With “We continue the change” is just the opposite - an expected decision by the Constitutional Court on the dual citizenship of Kiril Petkov could also affect the motivation of voters, the agency said.

The polling agency says that the serious and continuing erosion of Slavi Trifonov’s”There is such a People” party had reduced it from the first to the fourth or fifth political force. In July elections, “There is such a People” won the largest share of the votes.

At the start of the campaign, Democratic Bulgaria has 10.9% support, a “symbolic lead” over Trifonov’s party, which had 10.4%. Both “There is Such a People” and “Democratic Bulgaria” are suffering severely from an outflow of voters to the new project of the former caretaker ministers, “We Continue the Change”.

The collapse of “there is such a People” party is particularly strong, falling by a further five percentage points in just one month, with support for the party reducing to half since the July elections.

“Democratic Bulgaria” is also losing between one-sixth and one-fifth of its voters, attracted by the new party “We Continue the Change”.

With 9.3% support among those intending to vote on November 14, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms is set to be sixth party, which will enter the 47th National Assembly.

Given the late nomination of its leader, Mustafa Karadayi, as its presidential candidate, the current poll does not take into account the mobilising effect of this move on the parliamentary vote, Alpha Research said.

There is no serious statistical probability that any other party will overcome the 4% electoral threshold to win seats in Parliament. If this trend continues in the course of the campaign, it would mean a certain redistribution of electoral attitudes, but not a radical change in the balance of power.

The poll showed “Rise Up Bulgaria! We’re Coming” with 3.2 per cent support, and the pro-Russian Vuzrazhdane party with 2.9 per cent support.

About 10.6 per cent of those intending to vote had not yet decided who to vote for, the poll found.

The regular survey registered increased political interest among Bulgarian citizens, mobilization of party supporters and the emergence of complicated electoral dilemmas with the entry of new players in both types of elections - presidential and parliamentary.

The Alpha Research poll shows that 52.7% of the adult Bulgarian citizens intend to vote in the upcoming presidential elections, and 47.6% - in the early parliamentary elections.

Expectations that a two-in-one election will increase voter turnout are justified, and the presidential vote has traditionally aroused more interest.

The factors that could reverse this trend are the development of a worsening Covid-19 situation, the effects of the machine vote on the conditions of the two elections, and a possible sharp deterioration of the economic situation in the country, the agency said.

Until recently, the seemingly foretold presidential battle also emerged as more complicated and open-ended. As the survey was conducted between October 4 and 10, immediately after the announcement of the candidatures of Prof. Anastas Gerdzhikov and Judge Lozan Panov and before the nomination of Mustafa Karadayi, it reflects the first public reactions before the contenders were more widely promoted and recognised by voters.

The current president Rumen Radev enters the race with 42.6% of the votes of those who are determined to vote. The strongest support is received from the supporters of the BSP (over 90% of them) and “Rise Up. BG” (80%). Just over two-thirds of “There is Such a People” and “We Continue the Change” supporters would also vote for him. After the nomination of Lozan Panov, a quarter of the Democratic Bulgaria's supporters expressed support for Rumen Radev.

In second place is Prof. Anastas Gerdzhikov with 28.1%. Over 80% of the GERB electorate declares their support for him. In addition to their support, he managed to attract a more diverse periphery of about 7%, which exceeds the vote for GERB. About 15% of the supporters of "We Continue the Change", 12% - of those of Democratic Bulgaria, about 30% of supporters of IMRO and 10% - of other political forces would vote for him. His positions among graduates and people from larger cities, where he has the highest chances to increase his support, are serious.

Lozan Panov collected initial support of 8.2%. Although he has a unifying effect on Democratic Bulgaria, due to the support of about a quarter of its supporters to Rumen Radev, he currently receives a lower than its parliamentary result. His candidacy may play a bigger role in the parliamentary elections than in the presidential election, but he also has the potential to increase the support for him.

The other known contenders receive between 1 and 3 percent support. 13% said in the survey that they would vote for "another candidate", and it can be assumed that about two thirds of them would support a MRF candidate.

The poll was conducted from October 4 to 10.

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