October 2 snap elections: Polls show GERB 5% ahead of WCC, tight race for third place between MRF and "Vazrazhdane"

A slight decline in support for "We Continue the Change" (19.6% of the voters) was reported in August, which is why the lead of “GERB” party (24.4% of the voters) is now close to 5%, results of survey conducted by “Trend” polling agency showed on September 1.

The third place is strongly contested between the "Movement for Rights and Freedoms” (10.6%) and "Vazrazhdane" party (10.3%). The votes from abroad for the two formations are likely to prove decisive in the final results of the elections themselves. “Bulgarian Socialist Party” (BSP) is in fifth place with 8.6% of the vote, marking a slight decline compared to the July survey.

“Democratic Bulgaria” gained support from 7,3% of the voters, while the party of former defence minister, Stefan Yanev, in August looks close to the 4% threshold for entering Parliament with 4.5% of the voters’ support.

"There is Such a People" retains its chances for parliamentary representation after the October 2 elections with 3.9%. The party led by the former national ombudsman Maya Manolova (1.9%) and VMRO (1.2%) remain below the 4% threshold.

Some 61% of all respondents in the survey want to see a regular government at any cost after the early parliamentary elections, and 19% would rather have new elections if forming a government requires too much of a compromise.

The attitude towards the new caretaker cabinet is split three-ways. 32% of all respondents approve of the government of caretaker PM Galab Donev.

The most positive attitude is seen among the supporters of BSP, “Bulgarian Rise” of former caretaker PM and former Defence Minister, Stefan Yanev, and the former partner in the ruling coalition, “There Is Such a People”.

34% of those polled expressed a negative attitude towards the caretaker government. The largest share of those are supporters of GERB. The high percentage indicating the "don't know/can't judge" option is largely due to the short time the caretaker cabinet has been in office, “Trend” adds.

The biggest problems facing Bulgaria at the moment are rising prices (40 percentage points) and the energy crisis (19 percentage points), according to data from an open question to which each respondent was allowed to give up to three answers. The next two issues in the ranking are also socially oriented - poverty (11 percentage points), low wages (9 percentage points), corruption (9 percentage points).

The survey, commissioned by "24 hours" daily newspaper, was conducted between 15 and 22 August 2022, through a person-to-person interview among 1,007 adults.