Alpha Research poll: 6 or 7 parties will enter the next Parliament

Sociologist Genoveva Petrova on April 1 presented to BNT the latest results of a survey by Alpha Research, conducted between March 27th and 30th among 1,007 adult Bulgarians across the country. It is published on the website of the agency and was conducted with Alpha Research own funds. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota on the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was gathered through a direct standardized interview.

The turnout registered at the time of the poll was that between 2.6 and 2.8 million people would go to the polls on Sunday, April 4. This equates to about 51 percent of the country's permanent residence voters. But if it is calculated as a share of the voter lists of the total number of voters in them, it is actually lower - about 43%, said the sociologist.

Large number of people said that they had “serious concerns” about the Covid-19 pandemic, which may in the last minute influence their decision about going to the polls. Some 10% of those 2,8 million, who have decided to go to vote are seriously worried and a further 36% had “some concerns,” according to the poll.

A significant proportion of people are worried about the Covid-19 crisis, which could affect their decision to vote until the last minute. 10% of those 2.8 million who decided to go to the polls are very worried about it, other 36% - in part.

It is possible in the days before the elections or on Election Day to have more significant dynamics of decline in voter turnout, which could lead to a major reshuffling of the electoral picture, she said.

This survey did not examine the attitude of quarantined voters, but it is a fact that there are such people who will find it difficult to vote. On the other hand, we have the Central Election Commission’s assurance that the election administration will do its best to enable them to cast their ballots.

According to the voters we have and the turnout predicted by Alpha Research, 6 or 7 political parties will enter parliament. GERB and Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) are the leading parties. What is specific is that within the campaign GERB has widened the lead over BSP. GERB has practically kept its result stable since the beginning of the campaign, but BSP marks a slight outflow of voters.

Two other parties are in dispute for third place. These are "There is such a people" (the party of TV presenter Slavi Trifonov) and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF). They have very similar results. The turnout will resolve this dispute.

If there is a lower turnout, then the MRF, given its highly motivated electorate and, last but not least, the traditionally added vote from abroad, will have a higher weight in the end result. The supporters of "There is such a people" are more emotionally motivated, they are mainly anti-system voters who are not interested in politics and can be both quickly motivated and quickly demobilized. A higher turnout would be beneficial for the party, but with a lower one, this will not work in their favour," said the sociologist.

"Democratic Bulgaria" and "Stand up! Mutri out!" (led by former ombudsperson, Maya Manolova) are the parties that are most actively fighting for the protest vote at the moment. These two formations are most intensively marking a growth in the support during the campaign, but the logic of their support is also different. "Democratic Bulgaria" relies on a relatively loyal electorate of the parties included in this union, and in the course of the campaign they attract additional support, especially among the younger voters from the larger cities. In the coalition around Maya Manolova, such loyalty to the party is absent. There, the vote is similar to Slavi Trifonov's "There is such a people" party. Although it managed to gather support during the campaign, if there is an unfavourable set of circumstances, there could be a decline in the support, Petrova said.

Krasimir Karakachanov’s nationalist IMRO party is on the verge of 4% for representation in Parliament. The whole niche of the nationalist parties is very interesting - IMRO, businessman Vesselin Mareshki’s "Volya" and Valeri Simeonov’s NFSB, parties like "Attack" and "Revival" - for them this campaign has become a kind of internal battle for the radical, for the populist vote. The most significant growth in support in the course of the campaign was marked by the coalition between Volya and the NFSB parties.

The majority of people who have decided to vote say they will vote in the traditional way - with a paper ballot. However, 25 percent declare their desire and interest to take advantage of machine voting.

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