"Gallup" polls: If elections were today, WCC-DB and GERB-UDF neck and neck, uncertainty for the third place

If the elections were held in early March, the result would probably be as follows: the We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria merger and GERB-UDF would have almost identical support with 27.2% and 26.6%. Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and "Vazrazhdane” would be the other parties with similar results and would compete for the third place with 13.4% and 12.3% respectively. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) would come fifth, with 7.3%.

Three political parties - "Bulgaria Ascending” with 3.7%, "There is Such a People” with 3.4% and "The Left" with 3.2% would be in the race for the possibility of passing the 4% electoral threshold to secure representation in Parliament.

The data are from a Gallup International poll for Bulgarian National Radio (BNR) showing attitudes at the campaign launch.

However, the election campaign is still unfolding and the numbers at this point should be seen as a snapshot of declarative attitudes, not a forecast. With close numbers, fluctuations in turnout, political crisis, etc., dynamic developments are possible, including at the last minute.

The polls found that 40.6% of the surveyed would definitely vote. This implies a turnout close to that of the previous elections - insofar as in the previous elections the declarative turnout levels at this stage were similar - but here too the campaign will be decisive and the percentage based on the formal voters lists is yet to be seen. 4.4% say they would choose "I do not support anyone" option if the elections were today.

The Gallup poll was conducted between 24 February and 3 March 2023 among 1,008 people using a face-to-face tablet method. The sample is representative of the country's adult population. The maximum standard deviation is ±3.1% at the 50 percent shares. 1% of the total sample equals about 54 thousand people.

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