Mathematicians predict Covid-19 incidence in Bulgaria to double within the next 3 weeks

There is a possibility for a bigger peak of COVID-19 cases than in the previous wave. Within three weeks, the 14-day morbidity could reach 800 per 100,000 people, mathematician Lachezar Tomov told BNT morning show "The day begins with Georgi Lyubenov" on March 7.

A sharp increase in the number of people who will need hospital treatment next month if the measures do not change - the forecasts by Petar Velkov and Lachezar Tomov show.

"Hospitalizations will increase by nearly 3,000 next month, which is appalling," Velkov said.

"Twice as many people from the new cases may possibly go to intensive care and hospitalization, and the average age will be lower," Tomov added.

In two weeks, mortality may jump more than twice.

"In April, the death rate may possibly reach 16,000 people, which is about 5-6,000 people increase in mortality in the next month and a half," predicts Velkov.

"Within 37 days my forecasts show between 250 and 450 deaths per day, depending on the situation, within 21 days we expect between 3 or 6,000, this is possible to happen if no action is taken to prevent it," Tomov added.

The reproduction number is currently between 1.2 and 1.3, which does not allow to reach the peak of morbidity, from which to start descending.

According to the mathematicians, the effect of the re-opening of the restaurants is yet to be felt.

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