NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE: BULGARIA FACES DEMOGRAPHIC MELTDOWN

The latest data of Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute (NSI) shows that in 2070 the population of Bulgaria will fall to 4,900 000 people. Due to low birth rate and high mortality rate, mountain regions in North-West of Bulgaria will be depopulated. By the end of November, Bulgaria’s government should present measures for dealing with the adverse demographic trend.

According to the NSI, the population of Bulgaria will continue to decline by approximately 30,000 people per year. The forecast is the Bulgarian population to decrease to the level of 4,9 and 5,5 million people.

Bulgaria has the highest death rate in the EU and most worrying is the fact that the mortality rate will remain high.

The NSI statistics also reveals that in 2070, 100 people at working age will support 109 pensioners, which will place a great burden on the social systems, particularly on the pension system. Currently the worker/retired dependency ratio is 100 to 78.

Smolyan, Vidin, Gabrovo, Vratsa and Kyustendil are the towns with most swiftly–declining populations, expected to decrease two or three times.

Only the population in the capital city of Sofia will increase. According to the forecast figures, 1,6 million people will live in Sofia in 2070, which will account for 30% of the country’s population.

The town of Smolyan will be one of the most affected by the consequences of the ageing population. It will melt down to 17,000 – 20,000 people, out of which the share of the working age population will significantly shrink to 3,000-4,000.