IMF: Bulgaria’s Economic Growth to Accelerate to 3% in 2025

Bulgaria’s economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, compared to 2.8% in 2024, according to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published on October 14 in its World Economic Outlook report.

Inflation is also projected to rise slightly – to 3.6% this year and 3.4% in 2026, compared to 2.6% recorded in 2023.

The published figures align with the expectations outlined after the IMF mission to Bulgaria in September, which concluded that the country’s strong growth is “supported by sustained private consumption, robust credit growth, and fiscal easing,” while inflation is expected to gradually ease, remaining around 3.5% this year and next.

The new growth forecasts represent an upward revision from the IMF’s April outlook, which projected growth of 2.5% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026. Inflation expectations have been adjusted slightly downward for the current year (from 3.7%) and upward for next year (from 2.3%).

The current account balance is projected to remain negative, at -3.8% of GDP in 2025 and -3.2% in 2026, compared with the April projections of -1.5% and -1.0%, respectively.

Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to continue declining, from 4.2% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, reflecting the sustained strength of the labour market.