October 2 snap elections: What could be the balance of power in Bulgaria’s next Parliament?

The exact distribution of seats by the Central Election Commission (CEC) will become clear after the results of the vote are fully processed. According to the results of Alpha Research's parallel count, with 100% of election protocols processed, the distribution in the plenary would be as follows:

Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition will have the largest number of MPs - 67. Petkov and Vassilev’s "We Continue the Change" will have 51 seats. Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) will have 40 MPs and "Vazrazhdane" - 26. The Bulgarian Socialist Party will have 24 MPs and “Democratic Bulgaria” will have 20 seats. The smallest parliamentary group will be the new party of the former caretaker PM Stefan Yanev, "Bulgaria Ascending", which will have 12 MPs.

According to "Gallup" polling agency, GERB-UDF will have 63 MPs, “We Continue the Change" will have 53, and MRF will have 41. "Vazrazhdane" party will have 27 MPs, BSP will have 24 and "Democratic Bulgaria" will have 19. The “Bulgaria Ascending” group will have 13 MPs. This number may change by one or two MPs depending on the final election results.

What are the possible coalitions?

Difficult, but some combinations of parties in a coalition are still possible. Let's look at how a majority in Parliament could be achieved. Everything, of course, is a matter of hypotheses based on the anticipated number of seats calculated at 100% of the parallel vote count by the Alpha Research polling agency.

If we add the MPs of GERB-UDF with those of MRF, we get 107. The newcomers in the Parliament, "Bulgaria Ascending”, have said that they are ready to talk with everyone. When added, this makes 119 MPs, which is not enough for a stable government. A possible minority cabinet could be dependent on floating majorities.

If we group the MPs of the two largest groups on the principle of "Euro-Atlantic coalition", GERB-UDF with those of "We Continue the Change" and "Democratic Bulgaria", we get 138 MPs. Quite enough for peaceful legislative activity.

Let's take a look at option number three - between the previous coalition partners: 'We Continue the Change', BSP and 'Democratic Bulgaria'. In this situation, we get 95 MPs, which is not enough. Will a cabinet be formed within this 7-party Parliament - everything is a question of negotiations, as well as mathematics .