Poll: One in Three Will Vote for Radev-backed Political Formation, Five Parties Certain to Enter Next Parliament, Two Hover near Threshold

Five political formations are certain to secure representation in Bulgaria’s next National Assembly, while two others remain close to the 4% parliamentary threshold but retain a realistic chance of entering Parliament. That is according to findings from a survey by the polling agency Trend.

The new political formation associated with Rumen Radev (President of Bulgaria 2017-2026) leads the field, attracting the support of 32.7% of voters. The coalition GERB–UDF remains in second place with 20.4%.

There is uncertainty over third place, with a close contest expected between We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria on 10.9% and Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)–New Beginning on 10.5%. Vazrazhdane ranks fifth with 7.8% support among voters.

Just below the parliamentary threshold are the Bulgarian Socilaist Party (BSP) on 3.8% and MECH (Morality, Unity, Honour) on 3.6%. There is Such a People stands at 2.5%, while the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms records 1.7%, and Velichie has support from 1.6% of voters.

Pollsters note that the figures have been recalculated to exclude respondents who said they would vote “I support no one”, a share that stands at 1.9% this month.

Turnout in the forthcoming snap parliamentary elections is expected to be higher than in the past several elections. Some 59% of all Bulgarian citizens of voting age residing in the country say they intend to exercise their right to vote. Researchers estimate that around 3.1 million voters will go to the polls on 19 April.

The survey was commissioned by 24 Chasa and conducted through standardised face-to-face interviews with 1,002 respondents aged 18 and over between 12 and 18 February.