Confidence in the government majority and the stability of the cabinet remains strong, according to data from a Gallup International Balkan survey conducted between 29 September and 12 October 2025. At the same time, there is a noticeable mobilisation of the core opposition electorates. The two political formations registering growth compared to the previous July survey are GERB–UDF and We Continue the Change - Democraic Bulgaria.
Among respondents who have decided how they would vote, GERB–UDF maintains a convincing lead with 27.4% support (up from 25.7% in July) – its highest result since the beginning of the year. The party’s strengthening position is attributed to the performance of the government and its consistent work on key priorities, including eurozone accession, implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, and maintaining economic stability.
'MRF – New Beginning' remains second with 17.5% support, showing no significant change from July. The data indicate that, having overcome internal tensions, the Movement has regained the level of support it enjoyed prior to them, when it finished second in the June 2024 parliamentary elections with a result exceeding 17%.
Currently, a tight race for third place is emerging. As of early October, WCC–DB ranks third with 13.9% (up from 12.6% in July), demonstrating clear mobilisation among its core supporters. However, there are still no sustained signs of recovery among its broader electoral base. Close behind, with only a slight difference, is Vazrazhdane (Revival) with 13.4%, likely reflecting a waning of its peak momentum on topics such as the upcoming euro adoption and geopolitical debates.
The BSP remains within its traditional range of recent years, with 7.6% support, still unable to expand beyond its core electorate.
Smaller parties also maintain relative stability, though within narrower segments: There Is Such a People (TISP) – 5.8%, MECH (Morality, Unity, Honour)– 5.7%, and Velichie – 4.3%. The impact of the controversy that erupted at the end of the fieldwork, related to TISP’s legislative proposals for severe penalties against media outlets publishing personal data of public figures, will become clear in future surveys. The deep erosion of Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, first recorded in July, is confirmed – if elections had been held in early October, the formation would have remained below the electoral threshold, with 1.2% support.
No significant changes are observed in public trust in senior state officials or party leaders.
The survey was conducted through standardised face-to-face interviews, with data recorded via tablets. The research included 904 adult Bulgarian citizens and was carried out between 29 September and 12 October 2025. The maximum statistical error is ±3.5% for a 50% share, at a 95% confidence level. The study is part of Gallup International Balkan’s independent research programme and was self-funded.
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