Is Climate the Only Cause of Natural Disasters?

Is climate change the only cause of natural disasters? How are wildfires and floods connected, and how artificial intelligence, developed by a young Bulgarian researcher, could help fight fires? Borislava Aleksova explains in our series: “Climate: The Hot Truth.”

This year, Bulgaria recorded 28,000 wildfires and tens of thousands of hectares were devastated in just a few months.

Chief Commissioner Alexander Dzhartov:
“This year the fire season started slightly earlier – at the end of June – and practically continued until the end of September. Essentially, we had a significant number of incidents almost every day.”

Over 90% of fires are caused by human activity, either through negligence or intent. However, climate change amplifies their spread.

Assoc. Prof. Liliya Bocheva, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH):
“Last summer was one of the hottest, perhaps not as hot as last year, but June and July were among the driest summers in the past 50 years.”

Chief Commissioner Dzhartov:
“We had almost no rainfall during these three months, combined with dense vegetation. Unmaintained yards and areas near settlements, along with strong winds, worsened the situation. Colleagues in other countries are experimenting with using animals, such as goats, to reduce leaf litter, which influences how fires develop.”
Interestingly, wildfires are also linked to subsequent flooding.

Chief Commissioner Dzhartov:
“Burnt vegetation can no longer retain water from rainfall in the same way that live plants can.”

Assoc. Prof. Bocheva:
“Often, monthly rainfall totals occur over just a day or two. In such a short period, the water rarely fills rivers or reservoirs, but instead creates conditions for new disasters.”

During major floods on Bulgaria’s southern Black Sea coast, the village of Kosti recorded the highest rainfall ever measured in the country. Yet, climate alone is not to blame for all disaster impacts.

Chief Commissioner Dzhartov:
“In places like Elenite, a tidal surge caused severe damage. Without human intervention, the consequences would likely not have been so severe, even though rainfall totals were significant.”

While climate cannot be controlled, the effects of disasters can be mitigated by reducing conditions that promote fires and floods.

New technologies are joining the fight against disasters. An AI-based application using neural networks can recognise fire patterns in images and provide real-time warnings.

Lyubena Nacheva-Grigorova, Assistant, University of Telecommunications and Post:
“The application works with spatial data from natural disasters, specifically forest fires. It processes data from satellites, such as Sentinel missions, and even drones, in real time.”

This technology allows emerging fires to be detected and contained promptly, potentially reducing damage and improving disaster response.