What do polls show before the elections?

In the month before the early parliamentary elections scheduled for 2 April, we collect the main opinion polls on the results of the vote. The surveys by Alpha Research, Gallup International and Trend were conducted before the official start of the election campaign.

"Alpha Research”

(the survey was conducted between 21-27 February)

At the start of the election campaign - weak motivation to participate in the elections and parity in the battle for the first place was registered by a nationally - representative survey of "Alpha Research".

However, the survey reports a small lead for the “We Continue the Change” – “Democratic Bulgaria” coalition. The survey was conducted between 21 and 27 February among 1007 adult Bulgarians. It was financed with own funds.

According to the Alpha Research survey, 26.4 percent of those who firmly decided to vote said they would support the coalition "We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria”.GERB-UDF are second.

Alpha Research points to parity between the two political forces and that at the moment the WCC-DB coalition has a smaller percentage than the sum of the percentages of the two parties.

The third position is for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) - with 13.2 percent of the vote. Next is Vazrazhdane with 11.3 percent.

The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) started the campaign with 7.4 percent support and even at this early stage a clear drop in its electoral support was registered. Internal contradictions drain supporters from the party, who reorient themselves in different directions. The outflow is mostly to the newly formed “Levitsa” (the Left) coalition.

Three parties are close to the electoral barrier. "Bulgaria Ascending", "The Left" and "There is Such a People", with 3.8%, 3.6% and 3.2% respectively.

The turnout declared at the start of the campaign is comparable to the levels of October elections. 39% of Bulgarians will vote, 33% will not vote and 28% are undecided.

Asked if they would support a broad coalition between GERB-UDF and "WCC and DB" if there were not enough votes, 5% of respondents said they would fully support, 28% - that they would rather support, 20% - that they would rather not support, 30% - that they would not support at all. 17% of respondents had no opinion. More likely to support this broad coalition are supporters of GERB-UDF, while the majority of WCC-DB supporters remain distant.

"Gallup International”

(the survey was conducted between February 2-12)

Almost a month before the start of the election campaign, a representative survey of Gallup International, conducted between 2 and 12 February among 808 adult Bulgarians using the face-to-face method with tablets, showed a tie for the first place. The survey is part of Gallup International Balkan's independent research programme.

If the elections were in mid-February, five formations are sure to enter Parliament, two that are close to the barrier, and it remains to be seen how far the ambitions of the emerging coalitions and the newly returning players can go.

If the elections had been in mid-February, the result would probably have been as follows: WCC-DB and GERB-UDF would have counted on similar support, 27.1% and 26.1% respectively.

At the beginning of February, the new coalition shows a levelling of the score against GERB and a larger margin. At the same time, at least at this stage, no "add-on" of support is visible. Traditionally for this political space, however, this addition can be expected even at the last moment.

The MRF shows support of 13.4%, and close behind them are "Vazrazhdane" - with 12.3%. The BSP has 8.6%, but it remains to be seen whether and what impact the complex processes in the party will have.

Around the barrier are "Bulgaria Ascending"- 4.2% (for which at this point there was speculation that they would form a coalition with VMRO and that is why the survey was done for a coalition of the two formations) and "There is Such a People", which are moving close to being in the Parliament again with 3.9% at this point. Below the line are mostly the prospects of parties such as the new left coalition, NDSV, etc.

3.8% would prefer "I don't support anyone" option if the election were in February.

40.7% said they would certainly vote. This is close to the turnout of the previous election.

"Trend."

(the survey was conducted between 4-11 February)

The formula for the next National Assembly is 5 + 1 formations, showed a representative poll of Trend, conducted between 4 and 11 February among 1003 adult Bulgarians. The survey was commissioned by the newspaper "24 hours".

Even before the official announcement of the electoral coalition between "We Continue the Change" and "Democratic Bulgaria", "Trend" tested their possible unification. When asked with pre-set options, GERB and the alliance between "We Continue the Change" and "Democratic Bulgaria" had similar electoral support.

GERB retains a marginal advantage of less than a percentage point over the pre-election coalition, with Boyko Borissov's party enjoying the support of 25.6% of voters, while the alliance between "We Continue the Change" and "Democratic Bulgaria" has 24.8% of the vote.

The data show that the electoral coalition managed to bring together the electorates of both formations, with no outflow registered as a result of the unification. At this stage, no bonus from it is accounted for, Trend says. No structural changes are observed in the alignment of the parties further down compared to the previous few months.

Third place remains for the MRF with 12.8 percent. "Vazrazhdane" reaches a level of 11.9% among voters. Fifth in the ranking is the BSP with 8.9% of the voters support. "Bulgaria Ascending" with 4% of the voters retains a real chance for parliamentary representation. The election campaign will prove decisive for Stefan Yanev's party. At a distance from the parliamentary barrier, but with more than 3% remains "There is Such a People". The option "I do not support anyone” continues to collect a relatively high percentage - 4.8%.

* The Gallup International and Trend polls cited above were taken before the creation of the WCC-DB coalition and before VMRO's decision not to form a coalition with Bulgaria Ascending and before it refused to participate in the parliamentary elections.

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