Five Formations Certain to Enter Parliament, with One More Party Close to Threshold, Poll Shows – Gallup International Balkan

Five political formations are certain to enter the next Parliament, while there is a chance that one additional party could pass the 4% electoral threshold, according to the latest survey by Gallup International Balkan.

The nationally representative survey was conducted between 8 and 16 April 2026 among the adult population of the country and is part of Gallup International Balkan’s independent research programme, funded from its own resources. The method used was standardised face-to-face personal interviews, with data recorded via tablets. The sample consisted of 803 adult citizens.

In the final stage of the election campaign, “Progressive Bulgaria” has a double-digit lead over GERB–UDF, the pollsters also note. Whether this lead will be replicated or changed on election day depends entirely on voter turnout on Sunday, meaning the share of citizens who actually exercise their right to vote.

Declared readiness to participate in the elections during the survey period is estimated at between 3.1 million and 3.2 million voters.

• Three Pollsters Publish Pre-Election Surveys Results Ahead of Parliamentary Vote

Among respondents who have firmly decided how they will vote as at 16 April, “Progressive Bulgaria” leads with 30.7% support, followed by GERB–UDF with 20.4%.

We Continue the change - Democratic Bulgaria is in third place with 10.4%. In the current political context, the formation has potential for additional mobilisation on election day and for increasing its pre-election support, the pollsters from Gallup predict.

Movement for Rights and Freedoms ranks fourth with 10.2%. The party traditionally shows mobilisation on election day, suggesting potential for growth beyond its current level of support.

“Vazrazhdane” is the fifth certain parliamentary force, recording a moderate increase in support to 6.6%. This trend is interpreted in the context of its clearer political positioning relative to “Progressive Bulgaria”.

There is also a possibility that a sixth political force could cross the electoral threshold, with “BSP – United Left” closest at 3.9%, while “Siyanie” also has a chance at 3.1%.

The following formations remain below the electoral threshold at the time of the survey: There is Such a People (2.9%), MECH (Morality, Unity, Honour) (2.8%), “Velichie” (1.9%), Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (1.0%), and “Blue Bulgaria” (0.8%).

The nationally representative survey was conducted between 8 and 16 April 2026 among the adult population of the country and forms part of Gallup International Balkan’s independent research programme, funded from its own resources. The method used was standardised face-to-face personal interviews, with data recorded via tablets. The sample comprised 803 interviews with adult citizens of the country.