October 2 snap elections: Polls show GERB leads by over 9% ahead of WCC, race for third place between MRF and "Vazrazhdane"

A low regarding October degree of predictability 2 elections is shown by the snapshot of Gallup International Balkan a few days before the vote. What is known is that hundreds of thousands of voters have yet to decide in the coming days.

Around and under 2.6 million people are expected to participate in the election (about 39% of the official list, with a small portion expected to choose "I do not support anyone" option) - a relatively low turnout that further reduces predictability. Given the situation in the country and around the world, serious fluctuations are possible, so the agency cautions that the data are not a direct prediction of the election result.

If the elections were held in the last ten days of September, GERB-UDF would receive 25.8% of the potential votes for parties, coalitions or independent candidates, "We Continue the Change" - 16.6%, and Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and Vazrazhdane (Revival) at the end of September are in a tight race for the third place, with 13.2% and 12.8%, respectively.

It is possible that they may end up in a "package" with other participants in the ranking - because of fluctuations in the turnout and mobilisation of different electorates.

BSP has 9.2% of the potential vote, Democratic Bulgaria - 7.8%.

"There is Such a People" are close to the 4% threshold for entering Parliament, with 4.2% of the voters’ support, and "Bulgarian Ascending” are on the very edge with 4%, making predictions even more difficult.

This confirms the 6+2 formula noted by Gallup International a few weeks ago: six, and possibly up to eight, groups could win seats in Parliament.

"Rise up, Bulgaria" and VMRO are below the threshold , with results of 1.9% and 1.2% respectively. Other formations is possible to be below the threshold..

*The data are from a nationally representative survey of Gallup International Balkan, conducted for the Bulgarian National Radio between 20 and 27 September among 1,009 adult Bulgarians through a face-to-face interview.