Summer 2025: Hot, Dry, and with Increased Wildfire Risk

Meteorologist Anastasiya Kirilova from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) on July 3 said that it is going to be a dry and hot summer. Speaking on the TV programme Denyat Zapochva (“The Day Begins”), she confirmed that weather across Bulgaria will remain dry and warm, with July and August unlikely to compensate for the record drought experienced in June. Kirilova highlighted an increased risk of wildfires, and rainfall levels are expected to remain below average.

The driest June in decades

“June this year is among the driest recorded in the past 100 years. In some parts of Southeastern Bulgaria, not a single drop of rain fell, and almost the entire country experienced precipitation levels below the climatic norm. Only the regions around Rila and Pirin mountains saw rainfall amounts close to seasonal averages,” Kirilova explained.

Temperatures in June 2025 were above normal and even higher than those recorded in June 2023, though still below the record highs of June 2024.

Heatwaves are intensifying

Kirilova forecasts temperatures to continue rising into early July. On Sunday and Monday, most parts of the country can expect maximum temperatures exceeding 35°C, with minimums around or above 20°C, resulting in warm nights.

“A thermal and baric ridge currently extends over the Balkans, creating stable and anticyclonic weather. This pattern will persist at least until Tuesday, when a baric trough will approach the region, bringing cooler temperatures and slight instability,” Kirilova explained.

photo by BNT

A temporary cooling is expected mid-week

Around Thursday, daytime temperatures are expected to drop by 7-8°C, returning to values closer to seasonal norms. Cloud cover will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday, though rainfall chances remain low. A higher likelihood of precipitation is forecast toward the end of the week, but it is not expected to be widespread.

Fire danger in dry areas

Due to the prolonged drought and high temperatures, several regions face a heightened risk of wildfires. The most vulnerable areas are Northwestern Bulgaria, Dobruja, and Southeastern Bulgaria.

“At present, the fire risk is not expected to reach extreme levels, but the situation will be closely monitored, especially during strong winds or dry lightning,” Kirilova noted.

Sea Temperatures: Pleasant on the Bulgarian Coast, Dangerously Hot in the Mediterranean

Sea temperatures along Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast range between 24 and 26°C — ideal for swimming. Unusually high temperatures of up to 30°C have been recorded in the Western and Central Mediterranean, which could contribute to severe storms, especially when colder air masses arrive.

Rainfall Will Not Offset the Drought

Forecasts indicate that July and August will remain drier than normal, with no signs of significant rainfall to compensate for the current drought. This presents serious challenges for agriculture and water supply in several regions.

Kirilova added that localized thunderstorms and hailstorms may occur during the summer, but such events can only be predicted a few hours in advance and on a very local scale.

Expert Recommendations from NIMH:

Regularly monitor local weather forecasts
Limit activities that could cause fires
Exercise caution during outdoor excursions, especially in mountainous areas
Stay well-hydrated and avoid sun exposure during the hottest hours of the day