Alpha Research poll: Tight race for first place and low voter turnout in April 2 elections

A tight race for first place shows the result of a poll by “Alpha Research” agency released on March 30, days ahead of Bulgaria’s April 2 early parliamentary elections.

GERB-UDF coalition has 25.9% support and the We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) electoral coalition has 25.4%.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), with 13.8% and Vazrazhdane, with 13.6% are in close contest for the third and fourth place.

Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) remains in fifth place 8.2%.

Bulgaria Ascending with 3.9%, “The Left” electoral coalition has 3.1% and “There is Such a People” with 2.3% are below the 4% threshold for representation in the 49th National Assembly.

Alpha Research commented that party messages, aimed mainly at hard party electorates, were failing to motivate a wider range of voters to go to the polls.

The poll was taken from March 25-29 2023. by Alpha Research, is published on the agency’s website and was carried out using its own funds. The poll was done among 1113 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota according to the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardised interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.

Currently, 3.7% of voters will take the opportunity to tick the "I do not support anyone" box on the paper ballot, the so-called protest vote.

GERB has higher support in the country, and WCC-DB has a larger electoral periphery, especially in capital city Sofia.

"It is observed that in the course of the election campaign, GERB managed to mobilise its supporters in the country. In contrast, WCC-DB is one of the formations that have a wider electoral periphery, which has the potential to be mobilised within the next few days," Genoveva Petrova of Alpha Research said in the studio of the BNT morning programme "The Day Begins".

“It may turn out that Sofia will decide the elections,” she said.

For the third and fourth place, the decisive vote would be from abroad, the sociologist believes.

The turnout is expected to remain low - very close to what we had in the previous elections in October last year.

39% of the eligible voters say they will definitely go to the polls, which is about 2.5 million voters. 48%, however, are adamant they will not vote. 13% are undecided.

According to Genoveva Petrova, it is evident that the paper ballot is not proving to be the decisive factor in voter turnout. The main factor people are more likely to express reluctance to go to vote is mostly due to the distrust they have towards political parties.

Those who are hesitant and those who are undecided about whether to vote can undoubtedly tip the scales. These are large enough shares of voters and with the low turnout looming, they could shift the picture in different directions, Petrova said.

According to the poll, 74% of the people have not changed their minds about who to vote for in the upcoming April 2 elections. 15% have not chosen who to vote for and 11% have changed their minds.

"It's entirely possible that those 15% will make much more substantial shifts on Election Day itself," Petrova said.

"What we can summarise is that the expectation from this campaign were, despite the low interest, a fifth consecutive election, that it would prove decisive given the starting positions of the parties. Three days before the elections, however, we see that the campaign is bringing some electoral dynamics in support for the individual parties, but not a qualitative change in the overall political picture.

This is due to the fact that the majority of the parties, especially the leading parties, have relied in this campaign on communicating messages aimed at hardcore voters without making more effort to attract a wider range of supporters. We still do not have a resolution to the intrigue that was tangled at the beginning of the election campaign," Genoveva Petrova of Alpha Research said.