Bulgaria yet again remains outside Schengen - what next?

The news that the Netherlands supports Romania and Croatia for Schengen, but not Bulgaria, surprised most Bulgarian politicians who hoped Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to change his long-standing consistent position on this issue within a few weeks.

Since the time of the GERB governments, the refusal of the Netherlands to support Bulgaria's Schengen membership has been explained as an internal political issue for the government in The Hague. At a press conference yesterday, Rutte recalled that his country has been "strict but fair" towards Romania and Bulgaria since the time of the previous government of Prime Minister Balkenende before 2010.

"The issue is not political, our position is based on facts," Rutte said.

Rutte's arguments for not supporting Bulgaria are two - failure to meet the requirements regarding the rule of law and incomplete implementation of the Schengen system. On both issues, in his words, the concerns regarding Romania are over. In both cases, Rutte referred to the European Commission reports. Rutte likes to cite the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism, the reports on which they have been suspended for our country, but the mechanism itself has not yet been abolished. A few days ago, when the European Commission announced that it would no longer report on Romania under this mechanism, the institution again reminded what it expects from Bulgaria - accountability of the Prosecutor General and quoted the promises of the current caretaker government that this would be done within six months.

For Rutte, however, the promises are not enough. Yesterday he repeated several times that he wants facts. There has been no mistrust towards Bulgaria for a long time. Rutte does not claim that the border between Turkey and Bulgaria can be crossed for a EUR 50 note. His words yesterday were literally that his country wants guarantees that such a thing cannot happen.

In February this year, the then Bulgarian Prime Minister, Kiril Petkov, met the Prime Minister of the Netherlands on one of his first visits to Brussels. After the meeting, Petkov said that in Rutte's words, over the years Bulgaria had lied that it was ready for Schengen and that was why the Dutch did not want us in the free movement area.

"The problem is that over the years a lot of the things we have promised them, we have lied to them and there is no trust. Because nominally we have obviously respected the criteria, now the question is to respect them effectively", Petkov said.

In the last year and a half, Bulgaria had elections four times and the Schengen issue was not very convincingly present in the parties' election campaigns. In recent weeks, the topic has become the issue-of-the day in Bulgaria, more because of the offensive by the Romanian government and the readiness of the Czech Presidency of the Council of the EU to put the admission of Bulgaria and Romania to Schengen to a vote in December 2022. The resolutions of the European Parliament and the good assessment of the mission of the European Commission have fuelled hopes in Sofia that the Netherlands may change its position.

One of the latest arguments of Bulgarian politicians to their colleagues in the Netherlands, which is also highlighted by the media in the country, is that with its decision The Hague "throws the Bulgarians into the hands of Russia" and gives food to pro-Russian parties in the country. But in this context, the media in the Netherlands do not fail to recall the hesitant Bulgarian position on the supply of arms to Ukraine.

What next?

Yesterday, Mark Rutte said that support for Croatia and Romania from the Netherlands is guaranteed. On the agenda of the meeting of Ministers of Interior on December 8, however, the vote on Bulgaria and Romania is not separate, but together. Only the vote on Croatia is separate. This may mean that, because of its position on Bulgaria, the Netherlands will also delay the accession of Romania. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands said that he had communicated his country's decision to the Bulgarian President in a telephone conversation with him:

"I told it to the Bulgarian President in a phone call, he was not happy about it. But I told him - maybe next year you will be ready."

President Radev on the Netherland’s refusal to back Bulgaria’s admission to Schengen: Instead of receiving European solidarity, Bulgaria receives cynicism!

The other, so far less realistic option, is for the Czech Presidency and the other member states to agree to separate Sofia and Bucharest. This would mean that after December 8, Romania and Croatia will be accepted into Schengen, while Bulgaria will remain outside. For Rutte this is an acceptable option, for Bulgaria it is a humiliating situation.