Gallup International poll: If elections were held today, 8 parties would enter Parliament

If the parliamentary elections were today, the support for GERB and "We Continue the Change" from eligible voters will be almost the same. The picture is different if only the core voters are taken into consideration - then GERB would prevail.

There is an increased vote for “Vazrazhdane” party and a good start for the newly established party of former caretaker prime minister Stefan Yanev.

There are no structural shifts in trust in the main institutional and party leaders in the country, although there are signs of a general decline. Despite the lowered level of trust in the government, there is a reluctance to see it resign and Bulgarians are not willing to go to early elections.

Declared support for Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine remains low. Public sentiment against compromise with North Macedonia remains firm.

The observations are from the monthly edition of the Political and Economic Index - the independent monthly survey - published by Gallup International.

Among the general attitudes of all eligible voters, the small difference is between GERB (13.9%) and "We Continue the Change". The Movement for Rights and Freedoms gets 7.4%, Vazrazhdane 5.4%, the Bulgarian Socialist Party 4.9% and “There Is Such a People”4.8%. Below the 4% threshold for entering Parliament are the new party of Stefan Yanev, “Bulgaria Rise”, with 3.8% and Democratic Bulgaria with 3.7%.

While Yanev's party is little known, “Democratic Bulgaria” traditionally mobilizes voters in the situation of the elections.

35% of respondents said that they would not vote.

What is the picture among those who have made their choice to vote (where a barrier of 4% is calculated and we can see which are the formations with prospects of entering the parliament)? GERB leads with 24.9% against 18.2% for "We Continue the Change". MRF and "Vazrazhdane" are tied, with 11.1% and 10.5% respectively. However, in the case of "Vazrazhdane" one can expect some "hidden vote" in a real electoral situation. In the case of MRF, on the other hand, the potential vote from Turkey should be taken into account. The BSP has 9.7% of the core voters. The high start of Stefan Yanev's formation is clearly visible here - with 5.6% it is a kind of leader in the pack with Democratic Bulgaria (5.5%) and “There is such a People” (5.4%). VMRO is with 1.5% and "Rise Up, Bulgaria" - with 1.1%.

Thus, if the elections were today, the formations entering the Parliament would be eight. The new entrant is the party of Stefan Yanev, whose potential is yet to develop.

According to the results of the survey, President Rumen Radev has the highest approval rating among political leaders (46.4%), followed by Stefan Yanev (29.6%), Prime Minister Kiril Petkov (28.9%), Finance Minister Assen Vassilev (25.2%), GERB leader Boyko Borissov (13.9%), “There Is Such a People” leader Slavi Trifonov (12.5%), BSP leader and Economy Minister Korneliya Ninova (12.3%), “Vazrazhdane” leader Kostadin Kostadinov (11.1%), “Democratic Bulgaria” leader Hristo Ivanov (9.1%), Movement for Rights and Freedoms leader Mustafa Karadayi (8.5%) and Parliament Speaker Nikola Minchev (7.9%) and Atanas Atanasov (5.3%).

Radev is also the only figure with a positive rating, i.e. trust in him is more than distrust. Nikola Minchev, on the other hand, is not yet sufficiently known to the Bulgarians and future data on him are yet to show what the real assessment is. The general erosion of trust in the political elite, also caused by the deepening polarisation, seems to create a challenge for the trust in most political figures.

The government's traditional starting credit of trust has also traditionally come to an end. The coming months will prove whether this is a downward spiral or the usual erosion. However, public opinion is rather reluctant in the face of the prospect of resignation. It remains even more reluctant when the question of snap elections is raised. As of early May, confidence in the government stood at 26% and distrust at 62.4%. 35% want to resign, but another 41.1% are unwilling to see the government step down. The rest are undecided.

A total of 24.3% of respondents said they wanted snap elections, but 44.1% didn't. Obviously, the general low levels trust in governments in Bulgaria are catching up with this cabinet, but the lack of an alternative, as well as the unwillingness of the people to add internal turmoil to external dangers, is keeping it from even more serious tests.

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