World Bank Has Lowered Forecast for Bulgarian Economic Growth in 2027

The World Bank has maintained its forecast for 2.6% growth in the Bulgarian economy in 2026, but has lowered its expectations for the following year. At the same time, Bulgaria ranks among the top three countries in Europe and Central Asia in terms of data centre capacity per capita, according to the institution’s report published today, “Making AI Work: Jobs, Firms, and Productivity”.

Following growth of 3.1% in 2025, the World Bank expects Bulgaria’s gross domestic product to increase by 2.6% this year and next year, before growth picks up slightly to 2.7% in 2028.

Compared with its spring forecast, the estimate for 2026 remains unchanged, while the forecast for 2027 has been cut by 0.3 percentage points, from 2.9% to 2.6%. When presenting its previous forecasts in June, the World Bank also projected growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.

Strong domestic demand, supported by rising real wages, increased lending and looser fiscal policy, has sustained economic activity in Bulgaria, but at the same time has accelerated inflation and significantly widened the budget deficit, the report says.

The World Bank forecasts that the deficit will rise to 5.3% of GDP in 2026, up from 3% last year. The main factors cited are the rapid increase in social spending, higher municipal investment and increased energy subsidies.

Expected fiscal tightening and slower growth in real wages will limit economic growth to around 2.6% a year in 2027–2028, following strong increases in consumption and government spending, the institution forecasts.

For the Europe and Central Asia region, the World Bank expects growth to slow from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026, before gradually accelerating to 2.4% in 2027 and 2.6% in 2028. Excluding Russia, economies in the region are expected to grow by 3% this year, 3.4% next year and 3.7% in 2028.

The report does not provide separate numerical forecasts for the European Union and the eurozone. The World Bank nevertheless identifies weaker growth in the EU as one of the factors constraining exports and industrial activity in Europe and Central Asia. For 2027–2028, the institution expects economic activity in the EU to strengthen somewhat, supporting growth in Central Europe.

Bulgaria among regional leaders in data centre capacity

Bulgaria has data centre capacity of 2.89 megawatts per million inhabitants. Only Poland, with 6.62 megawatts, and Russia, with 3.82 megawatts per million inhabitants, rank higher in the region. The figures are for 2025 or the latest year for which data are available.

Bulgaria is one of only three countries in Europe and Central Asia where data centre capacity exceeds one megawatt per million inhabitants. The regional average is 2.1 megawatts, but this remains well below the 31.6 megawatts recorded in high-income countries outside the region.

According to the World Bank, a shortage of computing infrastructure is one of the most serious constraints on the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence. Europe and Central Asia account for less than 1% of the world’s 500 most powerful supercomputers.

Bulgaria’s relatively strong position in data centres has yet to translate into widespread adoption of artificial intelligence by businesses. In 2025, 8.5% of Bulgarian enterprises with at least 10 employees used at least one AI technology, compared with an EU average of 20%.

Development is also heavily concentrated in the capital. More than 90% of job vacancies published in Bulgaria requiring AI-related skills are in the capital region. According to the report, this creates a risk that new technologies could deepen existing regional disparities.

The business services sector, which provides a significant share of highly skilled employment in Bulgaria, is among those most exposed to changes brought about by generative artificial intelligence. The World Bank has so far found no widespread displacement of workers, but expects routine activities to become automated and employees to shift towards monitoring, quality control and more complex problem-solving.

“The main risk over the next decade is likely to be insufficient adoption and adaptation to artificial intelligence, rather than its excessive use,” said Ivaylo Izvorski, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia.